Solutions to adapt to the disruptions to our seasonal production cycles

In our previous article, we explored the impact of climate change on the agriculture calendar in Northern Nigeria. We found that climate-induced disruptions to rainfall patterns and temperatures have led to shorter growing seasons, reduced crop yields, and increased poverty levels. Prolonged drought depletes water resources and contributes to desertification, while excessive rainfall results in devastating floods that destroy farmlands and infrastructure. With the majority of the population reliant on rain-fed agriculture, these unpredictable weather patterns threaten the region's food security and economic stability. 

This article deep dives into three potential solutions - irrigation, bioengineered seeds, and early warning systems - that could help Northern Nigerian farmers adapt to climate change.

Irrigation

Irrigation offers a promising solution to boost agricultural productivity and food security in Northern Nigeria by enabling year-round farming and reducing reliance on seasonal rainfall. A study comparing irrigated and rainfed crops found irrigated crops yielded nearly twice as much. Despite its potential, only 5.4% of Nigeria’s 3.14 million hectares of irrigable land is currently utilized.

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Northern Nigeria employs various irrigation methods, from traditional water-lifting devices to large-scale projects like the Hadejia-Jama'are and Bakolori Dams. However, the high cost of modern irrigation equipment (₦250,000 to ₦1,000,000 per acre) is a major barrier for smallholder farmers, who make up 80% of farmers in Nigeria and live on less than $1.9 per day (<N3,000). Applying Nigeria’s gross savings rate of ~35%, it will take a smallholder farmer at least 20 months, on average, to accumulate sufficient funds to irrigate one acre of land. In reality, it will likely take much longer as farmers are unlikely to be able to save in line with the national average given their low incomes. 

Compounding this challenge, a study by the Lower Niger River Basin Development Authority (LNRBDA) in Kwara state, revealed that 78.3% of farmers lack adequate knowledge and expertise in modern irrigation techniques. While initiatives like The World Bank’s $495.3 million Transforming Irrigation Management in Nigeria (TRIMING) project aims to improve irrigation systems, many large-scale irrigation projects remain underutilized or abandoned due to inadequate maintenance and funding, compounded by insufficient local input and a lack of capacity building and training.

Programs like Fadama, however, which emphasized community-driven development through User Groups (FUGs) and provided subsidies on irrigation services, have proven successful. Real incomes of beneficiary households increased substantially, in some cases by as much as 154%. The reported success of the Fadama Project in Nigeria was largely driven by its emphasis on a community-driven development approach, which involved local communities in planning and decision-making. This participatory model ensured that resources and interventions were tailored to meet the specific needs of each community, fostering a sense of ownership and sustainability. To recreate and scale this success, future initiatives should prioritize localized decision-making, ensuring that irrigation and agricultural interventions are community-led. 

Early Warning Systems

Early warning systems are essential tools for managing climate risks and reducing the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. These systems collect and analyze meteorological and environmental data to provide timely and accurate forecasts, allowing governments, farmers, and communities to take proactive measures.

In Nigeria, the AgroMET Early Warning System, developed by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), offers tailored climate services to the agricultural sector, offering critical data on soil moisture, rainfall forecasts, and temperature variations, helping farmers make informed decisions on crop selection, irrigation planning, and pest control strategies.

However, access, communication and literacy barriers limit the effectiveness of these systems. To maximize their impact, there is a need for a clear communication channel between NIMET and smallholder farmers. Investment in mobile technology and community outreach programs, ensuring that all farmers can access and understand vital climate information. 

Bioengineered seeds

Bioengineered seeds could offer a promising avenue for  enhancing agricultural resilience in the face of harsh environmental conditions. There are several key types of bioengineered seeds, each tailored to address specific climate-related challenges: drought-tolerant, heat-stress resistant, salt-tolerant, pest and disease-resistant,and nutrient-use efficient seeds. 

For instance, the drought tolerant TELA maize varieties (SAMMAZ 72T, SAMMAZ 73T, SAMMAZ 74T, and SAMMAZ 75T) and pest resistant GM cowpea (SAMPEA 20-T) have been approved for commercialization. While these varieties have the potential to improve yield there are significant reservations and concerns regarding bioengineered seeds. These include the uncertain long-term health effects of genetically modified food consumption, the risk of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss, and the potential for increased farmer dependency on patented seeds, which could exacerbate poverty.

To adopt bioengineered seeds there is need for more research, transparency, and inclusive decision-making processes. Farmers should receive training on the benefits and limitations of GM seeds to make informed decisions. It is the government's responsibility to strengthen regulatory frameworks to ensure the safe management of agricultural practices and implement capacity-building programs to educate farmers on best practices. Integrating bioengineering strategies into national adaptation plans, such as the National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria (NASPA-CCN), will help align these efforts with broader climate resilience goals.

Northern Nigeria’s path to climate resilient agriculture 

Addressing the challenges climate change has given rise to in Northern Nigeria requires a multipronged approach. Nigeria already has green shoots from irrigation and early warning systems projects. Fadama, for example, is a proven strategy that has increased yield and income for farmers by over 100%. 

Future initiatives should retain Fadama’s core principles of community leadership, capacity building among local farmers. Similarly, NIMET’s AgroMET Early Warning System provides critical climate forecasts, but without improved communication and outreach, farmers remain unable to access or utilize this information effectively.

The government must focus on expanding these programs, ensuring better funding, farmer training, and stronger communication strategies to bridge the gap between innovation and impact. 

Bioengineered seeds, on the other hand, although promising as a potential solution, requires further research into associated environmental and health risk assessments, and transparent regulatory processes. 

By prioritizing investment into these areas, the region can transform its agricultural system into one that is not only resilient and productive, but also sustainable, ensuring food security and economic stability for future generations.