What has happened to our farming seasons in Northern Nigeria?

Over 70% of Nigerians engage in the agriculture sector. With over 84% of households in Northern Nigeria relying on agriculture for their livelihoods, the region’s importance to Nigeria’s agriculture is undeniable.  The region is known for producing staple crops such as millet, sorghum, cowpeas, and maize due to its climate and soil conditions. The region also caters to livestock production and is the leading producer of cattle and sheep. 

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Seasons of Northern Nigeria

Agricultural production in Northern Nigeria, like the rest of the country, is majorly rain fed. Northern Nigeria has historically been characterized by its arid to semi-arid climate, with a distinct wet and dry season. These seasons dictate the agricultural activities at any given period. 

Dry season in Northern Nigeria was historically between October and April, characterized by significantly reduced rainfall and the influence of the Harmattan winds, which bring dry and dusty conditions from the Sahara Desert. In Northern Nigeria’s agriculture this marks the peak of harvest time. Crops such as millet, sorghum, and cowpeas are harvested around this time. This period is spent gathering produce for sales and storage for the months ahead.

Rainy season, on the other hand, was historically between May and September, with peak rainfall occurring between July and August. Rainfall amounts can vary significantly across the region, ranging from 500 mm to 750 mm annually, depending on the specific location. The onset of the rainy season marks the beginning of intensive farming activities. Cereals like sorghum, millet, maize, legumes like cowpeas, and groundnuts, and tubers like cassava and yams are mainly grown around this time.

What has changed?

Over the past decade, significant changes in temperature and rainfall patterns have been observed, largely influenced by climate change.  

In recent years, rainfall patterns have become increasingly erratic. Some years have seen excessive rainfall, which has led to severe flooding, displacing thousands and destroying farmlands. In 2022, for example, floods in Jigawa State destroyed hectares of farmland, leading to significant losses in rice and maize production.

What is more prevalent, however, is the delayed onset and early cessation of rains, which effectively shortens the growing season. NIMET  predicts that Plateau, as well as parts of Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, will experience delayed onset of rainfall in 2025, and early cessation in Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Taraba, Niger states and the FCT.

With shorter rainy seasons, temperature trends in Northern Nigeria have unsurprisingly, shown a steady increase over the past few decades. In 2024, annual mean maximum temperatures ranged between 29°C and 37°C across the country, a significant increase compared to the 1991–2020 climatological standard normal, where average maximum temperatures were typically 1.5°C to 2.5°C lower. According to NIMET, the northeastern states of Borno and Yobe experienced the highest temperatures, exceeding 36°C on average. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves have also increased significantly. In recent years, the region has experienced 70 to 90 days of extreme temperatures exceeding 40°C, particularly during the dry season.

The irregularity in rainfall patterns has contributed to soil degradation and increased vulnerability of crops to drought stress. Drought occurrences have become more frequent, particularly in the northeastern region, which has historically been prone to desertification. 

How are these changes affecting the farming seasons?

Water sources, including rivers and reservoirs, are drying up faster due to increased evaporation, leading to water shortages. According to the World Bank, Nigeria has observed the gradual drying of Lake Chad over the last 40 years, from a land area of over 40,000 km2 to currently just 1,300 km2. Lake Chad is significant to Northern Nigeria's agriculture as it serves as a vital source of water for irrigation. Additionally, the lake supports livestock breeding by providing essential grazing land and water. The shrinking of Lake Chad impacts Northern Nigeria's agriculture by reducing water for irrigation and exacerbating soil degradation, but most critically, it disrupts flood recession farming. A vital practice where seasonal flooding nourishes fields for staple crops like millet and sorghum.

The delayed onset and early cessation of rains significantly disrupts the agricultural calendar, impacting traditional planting schedules and crop yields. Late rains force farmers to delay planting. This leads to reduced germination rates and poor growth conditions, resulting in lower yields or even complete crop failure. For example, millet, which requires consistent moisture during its germination and early growth stages, often fails to thrive when rains are delayed. Similarly, sorghum, a drought-resistant crop, still faces challenges when extreme heat coincides with its flowering stage, reducing grain production.

Consequently, farmers incur additional costs from repeated replanting efforts following failed initial plantings due to drought conditions before the late onset of rains. The cumulative effect is a potential food shortage that can exacerbate inflationary pressures on food prices across Nigeria.

Warmer temperatures significantly impact pest infestations in agriculture. The rising temperatures accelerate pest life cycles, leading to faster reproduction and potentially more generations within a growing season. This is particularly evident with pests like the fall armyworm, a pest that primarily targets maize, sorghum, wheat and rice, which thrives in warmer conditions. 

The changing climate in Northern Nigeria is reshaping traditional farming practices, making it harder for farmers to predict seasons and maintain stable crop yields. With delayed rains, rising temperatures, and increasing pest infestations, agriculture in the region faces growing uncertainty. Addressing these challenges will require better adaptation strategies, including improved water management, climate-smart farming techniques, and stronger early warning systems to support farmers in thriving in these unpredictable conditions.